Weird A$$ Weather
Unique weather events are happening across the globe, and unfortunately with climate change, it’s only going to get worse. In fact, as I edit this, my hometown is experiencing a blizzard. But that is normal for my area, and just the beginning of weird weather talk: F2 tornadoes in New England, earthquakes in the great plains, tsunamis worldwide, and Oregon recording record heat that melts the tar off of bridges. Weather is only getting crazier.
One of the first events I ever worked was a music festival in New England. The show was hosted at a mountainside ski resort which normally experienced blue skies, the occasional rain shower, quintessential ideal New England summer weather. That was not the case in 2008. On the second day of the festival, we had a major thunderstorm that led to a tornado warning. (Which is very, very rare for northern New England). Our staff had prepared for all kinds of weather including: thunderstorms, drought, normal wind, rain, and more. What we weren’t prepared for was the hurricane force winds and torrential downpour that occurred. Since we were hosting at a ski resort mud, run off, and landslides became items of concern. As the rain was pelting us, we scrambled for large pieces of cardboard and rugs to place over the most saturated parts of the grounds at the base of the mountain where all the runoff was pooling. We also saw our small tents receive damage, and a few blew across the grounds. At which point our team needed to find make-shift tent stakes to put them back up. Thankfully, no one was hurt, and the worst of the damage was wet feet and a few damaged tents.
While we were prepared for certain situations, including having several extra tent stakes, a few rugs for muddy areas, etc. We were prepared for the massive winds and rains we experienced for just over an hour one night.
So how do you deal with these crazy weather experiences? How do you deal with historic flooding? Four inch snow storms in Florida? Etc. It’s difficult. Most of the time for major events we plan years out. General seasonal weather can be planned for quite far out (IE: snow in New England for a January show or rain in Florida in summer time.) For the big, crazy, unexpected weather we often need to wait until we are close to the event to get into the minucia. Plus, weather changes by the hour, just ask us New Englanders, or see how we travel. (Do we keep ice scrapers in the car year round? Damn right we do!) How can we anticipate or prepare for strange weather so far out? There are some serious consequences to consider by not planning for the un-plannable. (That’s one hell of a sentence.)
My solution? Create the “Oh S#*%” plan. It’s never a fun conversation to have, but a serious one to consider. When your event is happening, at what point do you say “Oh S#*%, we need to stop this.”? At what point do you shut down one section or the entire event? The aptly named “Oh S#*%” plan helps to determine when a shut down or pause is necessary. It should be laid out in such a way that clear steps are listed and actionable. I tend to use an If This, Then That layout and make the “This” very clear and measurable. For example: If lighting/thunder are registering 10 miles away or less, then shut down all outdoor stages. Your key stakeholders (the important high level people, usually 10 or fewer individuals), should have a strong understanding of when the “oh S#*%” plan is necessary. Make sure the plan is written out, discussed, and understood by all parties. This should be done in pre-event meetings, and should be reiterated onsite.
How do you go about creating this document?
For the weather aspect of the document, I start by reviewing traditional weather sites to see averages for temperature, rain/snow fall, etc. Then I look at historic and seasonal items, like hurricanes, storm surges, wind events, tornadoes, anything that would be news coverage worthy. Beyond that, I look into various things, like weather patterns for that year. (Is it an El Nino year?) This gives me a decent baseline as to what to expect for the area. I usually build in some of the extremes, IE this area had a major storm surge last year for the first time ever. I will plan for that to happen again. Then I work with my venue(s) to fill in the blanks and understand what the facility(ies) can withstand. That’s when I fully develop the weather aspect of the plan.
Overall, you will never be able to fully prepare for the extremes Mother Nature can throw at us, but you can mitigate and manage some of what she throws.